Sphere 2 Transgenics/Paths Analysis

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Initial Notes

  • One + worth of population (60) provides +30/30/30 to all areas. Therefore, to make population the most efficient, one needs a total of +35% production of any items.
  • Caste System roughly doubles the transgenic bonuses given to a power, meaning that you "only" need +17.5% production to make population the best overall buy for caste system.

Assumptions

Fluff

This assumes a new player with no preexisting fluff-i.e. he can choose paths at will and make up fluff to suit it later.

Goals

  • The player is assumed to want relatively balanced industrial and wealth output, rather than a significant bias towards one of the three. This means that the utility of 1 unit of CIP, PIP, or Wealth is interchangeable with any of the other two, which allows strict numerical assumptions.
  • The player here is assumed to want to maximize industrial output at minimal cost (Minimize Maximum Losses) in line with the Minimax theorem of game theory.

Maths

Note that CIP, PIP, and Wealth are signified by "P", for production.

Caste System Maths

Caste System roughly doubles transgenic bonuses.

To make up for the loss of 1 morale (i.e. the breakeven point) a faction must have a total of 100 transgenic bonus, assuming "libertarian rickroll" provides the most equitable marginal gain of production (100P/1 morale). Average population factions will achieve 150/150/150, or 450. This merely requires a 22.2% production bonus from average population.

To double the loss, a faction must have 200 transgenic bonus. This requires a 44.4% production bonus from an average population.

Transgene/Baseline Comparison

Each "+" of transgenics is roughly equivalent to a loss of 100P, while each "+" of population is equivalent to a loss of 10P. However, once a player hits the initial breakeven point, each "+" of population is worth more than its equivalent in conventional production.

High transgenic powers therefore are best suited maximizing their population at all costs. More complex (i.e. non Austrian) levels of math will come later.

More Math

Assuming a +40/40/20 spread of CIP/PIP/W, for a total of 100% production, each population point gives a net bonus of 20P, or is equivalent to 1.2 dots of production. Similarly, assuming buying techs lower than your indices, each point of enhanced intellect gives roughly +1 GTL, or 0.5 pluses.

This means that to break even against a baseline power spending their points into production instead of transgenics and population, it needs 5 dots of population for every dot of transgene.

Using Caste System at +2 each (no socialization here), this costs 86 before transgenic bonuses (for a caste system) or 172 without a caste system. However, ZOCU can easily make -5 cost breaks from transgenic tech, reducing the cost of this to 56, or +3 transgene, using a caste system, and 152, or +8 transgene, for a non-caste system. The caste system's morale loss is made up by the effective +2 GTL, so will be disregarded.

This means to break even against industrograd with the triple +2 caste, you need 15 dots of population, or 90 million people. However, this does not actually factor in combat bonuses. To break even against peopleistan (max pop) with the triple +2, it is much simpler, since each point of pop is worth 0.3 more, needing a "mere" 60 million people for the caste system.

Consider for a moment that 12.5 dots of population can be relatively easily achieved by a ZOCU power, which essentially means a net loss of all of 0.5 of a plus, which is presumably made up by the bonuses of having transgenics in combat, and the result is incredibly efficient. The effective +2 GTL means that even a generalist (2/2/2/0) population at 100% only is out 4.5 pluses economically while gaining significant combat bonuses from their supersoldiers (and yes, it is possible to get 75 million people with 160 or so transgene, I've done it).

As GTL increases and as the level of the transgenics is reduced, the relative breakeven point lowers.

Minor Transgenics

A few powers may end up with minor (+10/20) transgenics due to various reasons. Under those circumstances, the most optimal method of usage is to take a small enhanced population of increased intellect or socialization transgenics, as those provide elite infrastructural bonuses.

Tentative Conclusions

Faction Specific Conclusions

  • ZOCU and China already find it most efficient to increase population via SP to increase production versus buying CIP/PIP, even as a baseline power (+9 total production vs +8 per SP for ZOCU, +12 total production vs +12/10 per SP for China).
  • The Magnates find it hardest to hit the 10+ point where population is more valuable than production (needing a total of +100% population production from transgene). This seems to be working as intended, making Magnate transgenics relatively less valuable to make up for how cheap they are.

Optimization

The two most optimal industrial paths are these:

  • Minimal population, baseline power: This gets you the most industry but lacks the combat bonuses of transgenic soldiers. However, this provides a significant flexibility advantage, because there is a greater variety of paths which grant production and many more options to shuffle production around (chaotic events primarily).
  • High population, high transgenic power: The transgenic combat modifiers exist here, and high population + caste system can mostly make up for the loss of production. On the other hand, this also requires a significant buy-in (spending tech levels into transgenics, taking the +transgene options whenever available at flexibility cost), which can dissuade people taking this path. This is the most optimal method of achieving high production as a Magnate power. Ironically, this is also possibly the reason for all the high-transgene Core powers, as it is extremely easy to get high population as a Core power and only somewhat harder to get highish transgenics.

All other sum paths are suboptimal and probably could do with a little bit of buffing. I suggest handing out, say, +1-10 SP for a power which doesn't fall under these two categories, depending on other factors.

Breaking the System

--Rask 10:07, 11 May 2011 (PDT)

Free Stuff

With a TL of 25 in Transgenics, you get a cost break of 6 on your templates, making simple one-level stats cost 6-6 = 0 TGP points. Apply to 100% of population and enjoy a free +20% boost to population's PIP production.

Almost Free Stuff

With a TL of 25 in Transgenics, you get a cost break of 6 points per template. Make four templates with one level in a single different primary stat. The two simple templates cost 0 TGP, the two complex ones 1 TGP each. Apply each template to 25% of the population (total cost: 4 TGP)
Apply caste system and enjoy boost of +20% to population PIP, +20% to population CIP, +10% to population Wealth, +20% trade income, and all elite bonuses at first level.

Objectionable Math

Consider the following templates, applied to 25% of the population each in a caste system:
1/0/0/0
1/0/0/1
1/1/0/0
1/0/1/0

Each one provides +20% pip (5 for level, x2 for 25% of population, boosted to x4 from caste system). The total pip boost is +80%, whereas enhancing 100% of the pop to +1 strength would only provide +20%

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